FIR FreightVector™

FIR whole-market freight intelligence

FIR FreightVector™

Connecting demand, capacity, prices, fuel, inventories, industrial activity and modal performance into one explainable freight-market state.

How to use this release: Read the market state first, then inspect the component disagreement. Freight conditions rarely move together; the divergence often contains more decision value than a single headline score.

Initial FIR freight-market reading

Domestic demand and rail volume remain constructive, but manufacturing shipments softened and transportation cost pressure—especially trucking and diesel—rose sharply. FIR reads this as expansion with cost pressure and modal divergence.

FIR freight stateExpansion under cost pressure

The broader economy and rail traffic are growing, while truck tonnage is choppy and truck cost indicators are rising faster than national services.

Confidence: Moderate

Multiple independent signals support the state, but the components describe different observation periods and should not be blended into false precision.

Private domestic demand+4.2%

Q2 real final sales to private domestic purchasers, annualized.

Manufacturing shipments-0.2%

June monthly change; inventories +0.1%.

U.S. rail traffic YTD+3.3%

Combined carloads and intermodal through 33 weeks.

Truck prices+10.9%

July year over year; diesel $5.652 per gallon.

Underlying demand is positive, but freight is uneven

Second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate, while real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2%. That stronger private-demand measure supports continued freight activity, but June manufactured-goods shipments declined 0.2% and the inventory-to-shipments ratio held at 1.48. The goods pipeline is not accelerating uniformly.

Rail and truck are telling different stories

Combined U.S. rail traffic was 3.3% above 2025 through the first 33 weeks, including 3.8% growth in intermodal units. July for-hire truck tonnage, however, fell 1.0% from June and 0.5% year over year. FIR treats this as modal divergence, not a contradiction: commodity mix, contract exposure, shipment size and modal economics differ.

Cost pressure is the clearest common risk

Truck transportation producer prices rose 10.9% year over year in July versus 5.1% for all services, while diesel reached $5.652 per gallon for the week ending August 24. Shippers face rising purchased-transportation and fuel exposure even without a broad national volume surge.

What would change the reading

Broader expansion: improving manufacturing shipments and truck demand alongside sustained rail growth.
Stagflationary freight pressure: continued cost increases while volume and industrial indicators weaken.
Normalization: easing diesel and transportation prices with stable private demand and balanced capacity.

Component dashboard

Dimension	Current direction	FIR interpretation
Domestic demand	Positive	Private domestic purchasing remained constructive in Q2.
Goods pipeline	Soft/steady	Shipments eased while inventories edged higher.
Rail demand	Positive	Carload and intermodal growth remained broad year to date.
Truck demand	Choppy	July weakened despite positive year-to-date tonnage.
Transportation costs	Rising	Truck prices and diesel create the strongest pressure signal.

Sources and method

FIR method: Each component keeps its own date, unit and economic meaning. FIR assigns a descriptive market state from confirmation and disagreement across dimensions; it does not average unrelated outside indexes into a black-box number.

Limits: This initial release is a national state assessment. Lane, mode, commodity and customer conditions may differ. Updated August 27, 2026.