North American freight intelligence
FIR Cross-Border Flow & Friction Monitor™
See where freight between the United States, Mexico and Canada is gaining momentum, encountering delay or shifting between truck and rail—before border friction becomes a network-wide problem.
FIR is establishing comparable gateway histories and data-freshness standards. Component evidence and corridor analysis will be published before any universal headline score. No score is displayed until its coverage, history and limitations can be explained clearly.
First FIR cross-border reading
Released: August 19, 2026
FIR interpretation: Growth is strong, but the modes are not moving together.
June’s current-dollar freight value was higher across both borders and the two dominant surface modes. The strongest signal came from trucking: its 23.0% annual increase outpaced rail by 12 percentage points, while truck value rose from May and rail value declined. That divergence argues against describing the month as a uniform improvement across cross-border transportation.
Mexico generated the larger share of combined trade value and the faster annual growth rate. Gateway exposure also remains concentrated: Laredo alone represented 22.6% of the reported North American total, while Laredo, Detroit and Ysleta together represented 40.0%. Disruption at a small number of high-value crossings can therefore have effects well beyond the immediate border market.
What would confirm the signal: continued annual growth in subsequent BTS releases, rising physical crossing counts and stable commercial processing times. What could weaken it: normalization in commodity prices, slower physical activity despite higher values, or worsening waits at the dominant gateways.
| Measured series | June 2026 | Annual change | May 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total transborder freight | $157.1B | +19.9% | $153.4B |
| U.S.–Mexico freight | $89.2B | +22.2% | $87.2B |
| U.S.–Canada freight | $67.9B | +17.0% | $66.1B |
| Truck freight | $104.4B | +23.0% | $99.7B |
| Rail freight | $17.1B | +11.0% | $17.7B |
Data status: Measured values are BTS TransBorder Freight Data in current U.S. dollars and are not adjusted for inflation. Month-to-month comparisons are descriptive and are not presented as seasonally adjusted trends. FIR calculated the displayed shares, percentage-point spreads and gateway concentration from the published values. The friction component is withheld because a comparable historical commercial-wait series has not yet been integrated into this release. Source data may be revised.
The signals that shape cross-border performance
Trade value alone cannot tell a shipper whether freight is moving efficiently. FIR connects flow, delay, direction, mode and commodity exposure to show where pressure is forming and what it may mean operationally.
Cross-Border Volume Momentum
Tracks whether truck and rail freight flows are accelerating, slowing or diverging across the U.S.–Mexico and U.S.–Canada borders, with gateway-level context.
Commercial Crossing Friction
Places reported commercial-vehicle waits in context so temporary congestion can be distinguished from sustained border-processing pressure.
Gateway Pressure
Identifies crossings where rising freight activity and worsening fluidity occur together—the combination most likely to affect appointments, equipment turns and delivery reliability.
Directional Balance
Examines northbound and southbound flow differences that can influence equipment positioning, backhaul availability and corridor pricing.
Truck–Rail Modal Shift
Shows whether changing freight patterns favor highway or rail movement and where the shift may alter capacity, transit-time or intermodal decisions.
Industry & Corridor Exposure
Connects gateway conditions with important commodity groups so automotive, produce, machinery, electronics and other supply chains can interpret the signal in relevant terms.
Put the monitor to work
Source coverage and update discipline
FIR uses outside data as attributed inputs to independent synthesis and analysis. Observation periods, release dates, revisions, units and material coverage limitations remain attached to each published signal.
- Bureau of Transportation Statistics — North American TransBorder freight flows and border-crossing activity.
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection — reported border wait times, including commercial vehicles.
- U.S. Census Bureau — monthly port-, country-, commodity-, value- and weight-level trade data.
Questions decision-makers ask
Is a higher freight value automatically a stronger flow signal?
No. Value can rise because of price or commodity mix even when physical movement is flat. FIR retains the original measure and compares value, weight, crossings and modal evidence where coverage allows.
Can one border wait time describe an entire corridor?
No. Waits vary by gateway, direction, vehicle type, time and reporting conditions. FIR will identify the location and observation window rather than nationalize a local reading.
Why is there no headline score yet?
A credible composite requires sufficient history, consistent gateway coverage and validation through different operating conditions. FIR will publish useful components and analysis while that foundation is established.
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Coverage note: Border conditions can change faster than monthly trade releases. FIR will state the observation period and freshness of every signal and will distinguish measured facts, FIR interpretation and unavailable evidence.