Freight Intel Report market data
Where freight pricing pressure is building.
A disciplined view of pricing pressure across truck operating-cost inputs, truckload, rail, barge and ocean freight—showing what changed, how fresh the signal is and what transportation decision-makers should watch next.
Current public-market signals
The public data do not support one universal freight “spot rate.” FIR therefore separates each mode, unit and coverage universe instead of forcing unlike markets into a misleading composite.
U.S. average retail on-highway diesel fell 0.3% from the prior week but stood 68.6% above a year earlier. This is a major truck operating-cost input—not a national truckload or LTL spot rate.
Average October bids and offers above tariff: $350 per car for shuttle service and $13 per car for non-shuttle manifest service. Year-over-year changes are −$194 per shuttle car and unchanged for non-shuttle service. These are premiums to tariff—not total rail rates, tariffs or guaranteed prices.
Illinois River grain-barge cost index, with 2017 equal to 100. It is an inland-grain proxy—not a universal waterway rate or the separate percent-of-tariff series.
Separate GTR context: Illinois River barge rates were 814% of the 1976 tariff benchmark, or $37.77 per short ton, on October 6 (released October 8), up 3 percentage points of tariff and $0.14 per short ton from September 29. This separate tariff series must not be spliced into the 2017=100 index.
U.S. Gulf-to-Japan and Pacific Northwest-to-Japan bulk-grain rates, respectively, in dollars per metric ton. These route-specific indications are not container rates or executable quotes for other lanes.
Truckload · September monthly observations
| Equipment | Including fuel | Vs. August | Vs. Sept. 2025 | Est. linehaul | Linehaul vs. August |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dry van | $3.01/mi | +$0.12 | +$0.96 | $2.17/mi | −$0.02 |
| Refrigerated | $3.62/mi | +$0.24 | +$1.18 | $2.70/mi | +$0.09 |
| Flatbed | $3.61/mi | +$0.07 | +$1.11 | $2.60/mi | −$0.10 |
Fuel-inclusive totals rose while dry-van and flatbed estimated linehaul fell. Audit fuel treatment, equipment mix and lane specifics before using these monthly averages in a bid. The DAT truckload sample is distinct from October’s weekly retail diesel input and August’s broad truck-freight PPI.
DAT public September 2026 release. No restricted DAT benchmark or subscriber data is reproduced.
Monthly producer-price context
| Transportation service | Month over month | Year over year | Coverage note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Truck freight | +2.0% | +14.3% | Broad truck-freight PPI |
| Rail freight and mail | 0.0% | +1.4% | Mode-wide PPI |
| Water freight | 0.0% | +16.7% | Mode-wide PPI |
| Air freight | +1.5% | +7.6% | Freight-specific PPI |
| Freight arrangement | 0.0% | +2.2% | Broker/arranger proxy |
BLS reported a 24.1% August increase in its No. 2 diesel fuel producer-price index, while EIA’s separate weekly retail on-highway diesel series fell 0.3% to $6.179 for the week of October 12 (released October 14). The measures cover different markets and time windows and must not be added or presented as one rate.
Two-week cost-index movement
USDA’s mode-specific grain-transportation cost indices moved differently between September 23 and October 7. The truck fuel-input proxy fell 4.9%, the rail proxy returned to its September 23 level, the Illinois River barge proxy fell 9.1%, the Gulf ocean proxy eased 1.0%, and the Pacific ocean proxy was unchanged. Each index has a 2017 base of 100 but represents a different coverage universe; these are not interchangeable freight quotes.
Change from September 23 to October 7, 2026
| Mode proxy | Sept. 23 | Sept. 30 | Oct. 7 | WoW | Two weeks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truck input | 246 | 241 | 234 | −2.9% | −4.9% |
| Rail | 134 | 130 | 134 | +3.1% | 0.0% |
| Illinois River barge | 274 | 248 | 249 | +0.4% | −9.1% |
| Gulf ocean vessel | 195 | 193 | 193 | 0.0% | −1.0% |
| Pacific ocean vessel | 176 | 176 | 176 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Revision check: the October 8 USDA report repeats the September 30 index row without change from the prior release. USDA publishes these indices as integers and provides no explicit preliminary or final flag. Percentage changes are calculated from the published rounded index values, so small differences from unrounded source calculations are possible. USDA’s October 8 prose describes the $75.75 Gulf–Japan value and the Illinois River tariff figure as unchanged, while its dated numerical observations move from $76.00 to $75.75 and from 811% to 814%, respectively. FIR uses the dated numerical observations for comparison; USDA did not identify either item as a formal revision.
FIR decision read
USDA’s October 8 release shows mixed grain-transport cost signals through October 7. From September 30, its truck fuel-input index fell 2.9%, rail rose 3.1%, Illinois River barge rose 0.4%, and both ocean route indices were unchanged. Over the two weeks from September 23, the truck input fell 4.9%, rail returned to its prior level, barge fell 9.1%, Gulf ocean eased 1.0%, and Pacific ocean was unchanged. October shuttle and non-shuttle secondary railcar premiums fell $350 and $27 per car, respectively, in the week ending October 1. The separate Illinois River tariff benchmark rose from 811% to 814%, or from $37.63 to $37.77 per short ton, on October 6. These data cover distinct markets and units and are not executable freight quotes.
Current mode coverage
Each signal is presented in its original unit and coverage universe. These measures provide directional market intelligence and should not be treated as executable quotes.
Methodology, cadence and sources
Update protocol: FIR reviews authoritative releases throughout the week and updates this page when a source publishes. Each value retains its own observation date; FIR will never make an older series look current by changing only the page date.
Comparison fields: Where the source supports them, each mode will show the current benchmark, weekly or release-over-release change, four-week direction, year-over-year change, volatility, source date and the operational implication. Fields remain blank when the underlying data cannot support a defensible comparison.
Primary public sources: USDA Grain Transportation Cost Indicators, USDA Grain Transportation Report, October 8, 2026, U.S. Energy Information Administration diesel prices, DAT September 2026 public truckload report, BTS/BLS Transportation Producer Price Index and Surface Transportation Board rail-service data.
The USDA index series use 2017 as the base year. Truck represents national diesel prices; rail combines near-month secondary-market values with selected shuttle tariffs and fuel surcharges; barge uses Illinois River rates; and ocean uses Gulf- and Pacific Northwest-to-Japan bulk-grain rates. DAT’s September broker-to-carrier spot observations are national monthly invoice-sample averages in dollars per mile; its estimated linehaul removes an average fuel surcharge. The BTS/BLS PPI measures average changes in seller prices for broad transportation-service universes; current August values are preliminary. These are useful directional benchmarks, but they are not quotes for every commodity, lane, equipment type or shipper.
Editorial rule: FIR will publish only data it can attribute, date and explain. Commercial indices will not be copied, scraped or redistributed without appropriate rights.
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